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If grain traders were hoping the U.S.-China summit would deliver a clean, bullish headline to start the week, they didn’t get it. Monday’s trade was a reminder that markets can sell the news, or, in this case, sell the lack of news.
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Grain markets kicked off the week with a little more life, and for once, harvest pressure was not the only story in town. Monday’s session brought solid gains across corn, soybeans and wheat, helped by strong export numbers, weather-related harvest delays and renewed optimism surrounding U.
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The grain markets finally have a little more spring in their step heading into the second half of August. After spending much of the summer wrestling with expectations for big crops and plenty of supplies, corn, soybeans and wheat all found reasons to move higher Monday.
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If there is one word that probably describes the grain markets heading into Wednesday, it is waiting. The market has been very quiet throughout the last several sessions, but traders have been positioning ahead of USDA’s August Crop Production and WASDE reports, and with the first survey-based yield estimates of the season arriving, there is plenty of room for the market to move once the numbers hit.
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I can’t believe we have already flipped the calendar to August. July was here and gone in the blink of an eye, but it sure brought its fair share of volatility to the markets.
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Late July is living up to its reputation: HOT weather, plenty of market chatter, and enough uncertainty to keep everyone checking forecasts and futures prices before breakfast. After enjoying a weather-driven rally earlier this month, grain markets took a step back this week as traders shifted their attention from crop concerns to geopolitics and outside markets.
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The grain markets are finding themselves at an interesting crossroads as we head into the heart of July. After last week’s USDA reports gave traders plenty to digest, the market’s attention has quickly shifted back to weather, global politics, and export demand.
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After spending much of the past few weeks on the defensive, the grain markets finally found something to get excited about. Weather concerns, renewed optimism surrounding trade with China and another round of aggressive fund buying combined to give corn, soybeans and wheat a much-needed rally heading into the second full week of July.
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As we turn the calendar to July, the grain markets find themselves at one of the biggest crossroads of the growing season. Traders entered the week focused almost entirely on USDA’s June acreage and quarterly grain stocks reports, two reports that have a long history of creating fireworks in the futures market.
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As the calendar pushes deeper into June, the grain markets continue to wrestle with a familiar seasonal theme: good weather tends to be bearish. That reality has been front and center this week as favorable crop conditions, improving forecasts, and a retreat in energy prices combined to pressure grain futures across the board.
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Corn futures have spent much of the past week under pressure as forecasts continue to point toward generally favorable conditions across much of the Corn Belt. Timely rainfall and moderate temperatures have allowed crop development to move along at an impressive pace across many key producing states.
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As we move deeper into June, grain traders are finding themselves in a familiar seasonal tug-of-war. On one side is generally favorable growing weather across much of the Corn Belt.
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As we turn the calendar to June (how is it already June?!), we see favorable early-season weather and lingering uncertainty about demand. While the growing season is still young, the market is already beginning to shift its focus away from planting progress and toward yield potential.
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The markets did their normal thing last week and reacted to every headline tied to China, tariffs, Iran, and export demand. Futures were whipped back and forth between optimism and frustration, but by the start of this week, the bulls appeared to regain a little momentum.
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Corn and wheat traders got a reminder this week that markets can turn on a dime when politics and weather collide. What started as a cautious, defensive trade late last week quickly shifted back into a more optimistic tone after fresh details emerged from the latest U.S.-China trade discussions.
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The markets are heading into mid-May still trying to sort out geopolitics, planting pace, and just how tight supplies could become later this summer. We spent much of the past week reacting to headlines coming out of the Middle East and renewed chatter about trade discussions with China, while farmers continued making planting progress whenever conditions allowed.