The grain markets finally have a little more spring in their step heading into the second half of August. After spending much of the summer wrestling with expectations for big crops and plenty of supplies, corn, soybeans and wheat all found reasons to move higher Monday. The question now is whether this is the start of something bigger or simply a late-summer bounce before harvest pressure arrives.
Corn led the charge Monday, with September futures gaining about 6 cents to $4.65 and December corn climbing 6.25 cents to $4.8950. That puts December corn right in the middle of the roughly $4.60-to-$5 selling range some analysts are watching. Strong export demand continues to be one of the best things corn has going for it. USDA export inspections totaled 75.2 million bushels for the week ending Aug. 13, up 8.6% from the previous week, pushing 2025-26 inspections more than 26% ahead of last year’s pace. Mexico, Japan and Colombia were the leading destinations.
That demand story is important because the supply side still looks awfully comfortable on paper. USDA’s August report trimmed its estimate of the national corn yield to 180.7 bushels per acre, but increased production to about 16.01 billion bushels because of larger harvested acreage. That’s still an enormous crop and the second-largest U.S. corn harvest on record.
The market will be looking for clues from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour this week, along with the latest Crop Progress numbers. There are already questions about whether high production costs and wet spring conditions caused some nitrogen to be lost or not fully replaced. One private crop tour estimate put national corn yields closer to 178 bushels per acre. For farmers in the Plains and western Corn Belt, that is a reminder that the national average can look very different from what is happening in individual fields.
Soybeans may have the most interesting short-term setup. November futures jumped 23.5 cents Monday to $12.16, putting prices back above the $12 mark. Wet weather concerns and a strong July soybean crush helped spark the rally. The National Oilseed Processors Association reported a July crush of 216.65 million bushels, a record for July and 10.7% above last year.
The catch is exports. Soybean inspections are running 18% below last year’s pace, and China was notably absent from the top destinations last week. USDA is forecasting a record-large 2026 soybean crop of roughly 4.52 billion bushels despite lowering its yield estimate to 52.7 bushels per acre.
That leaves soybeans caught between two competing stories: strong domestic demand and the possibility of more Chinese buying on one side, and a very large crop and sluggish exports on the other. For now, the market seems willing to focus on the bullish side of that equation.
Wheat has a different story. September Kansas City HRW wheat gained 4.5 cents Monday to $7.5875. The KC market continues to get support from a sharply smaller U.S. winter wheat crop and ongoing Black Sea tensions. USDA now expects total U.S. wheat production at only 1.53 billion bushels, down 23% from 2025, with winter wheat production down 29%.
Black Sea disruptions are giving wheat another reason to stay firm. Ukraine and Russia remain locked in attacks affecting ports and shipping routes, keeping traders nervous about whether grain can move normally. U.S. wheat exports, however, remain a weak spot, with inspections nearly 20% below last year’s pace.
Outside the grain markets, cattle have had a much rougher ride. Tyson’s sudden closure of its Joslin, Illinois, beef plant removed roughly 3,000 head of daily processing capacity and left some feeders scrambling to find alternative outlets. The closure comes during an already historic cattle shortage, making the processing landscape another issue for producers to watch closely.
Energy markets are adding another layer of uncertainty. Brent crude moved back above $90 Monday as tensions between the U.S. and Iran increased and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted. Higher energy prices can provide some support to corn and soybeans through biofuels demand, but they also mean higher costs for diesel, fertilizer, transportation and nearly everything else on the farm.
For the next couple of weeks, weather and demand will probably remain the market’s two biggest drivers. Corn and soybeans have enough production potential to keep the bears interested, but every yield surprise, export sale or weather problem can quickly change the tone. With harvest approaching, these rallies may be worth paying attention to. The market may not be offering a home run, but for producers who need to make sales, December corn near $4.90 and November soybeans above $12 are levels worth putting on the marketing board and considering.
