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A mix of geopolitics, energy prices, and fund buying has injected a fresh dose of volatility into the commodity space, and the result has been a generally supportive tone across much of the grain complex as we head toward the middle of March.
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Grain markets have continued their slow but steady climb higher over the past week, with corn and wheat leading the charge while soybeans have shown signs of hesitation after an impressive rally. Outside markets, geopolitics, and technical momentum are all playing a role, and especially now with the Iran situation, the trade is being cautious.
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Grain markets spent the last week trying to decide whether they want to break higher or stay stuck in neutral, and depending on which commodity you’re watching, you’re getting a different answer. Wheat has clearly found its footing and moved higher, soybeans are hanging onto recent gains but showing signs of hesitation, and corn continues to frustrate just about everyone by refusing to commit to a direction.
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Grain markets gave us plenty to chew on last week, even if the initial reaction to some bullish news felt underwhelming. Between fresh export data, South American weather chatter, and a few surprise headlines out of Asia and the Black Sea region, corn, Kansas City wheat, and soybeans all had their moments.
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What is it that they say... a tweet a day keeps the bears away? That’s sure what it felt like last week after we saw a bit of excitement in the markets following an announcement from President Trump.
Woolgathering With Mike
This year hasn’t really started off very well. At least not yet.
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Grain markets were pretty quiet over the last week, with nothing groundbreaking appearing in the headlines to shake things up a whole lot. Corn, Kansas City wheat, and soybeans all moved through the familiar tug-of-war between comfortable supplies on paper and lingering questions about weather, demand, and global competition.
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The grain markets finally found a bit of direction last week…and then the USDA dropped its January WASDE report on Monday, giving everyone something real to talk about. To put it lightly, the USDA made some rather large adjustments to the balance sheet, and it was NOT friendly to prices.
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If there was one word to describe the commodity markets in 2025, it might be abundance, though that abundance usually doesn’t translate into better prices. Across corn, soybeans, and wheat, producers spent much of the year managing big supplies, cautious demand and a market that rarely felt eager to reward good production.
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As we head into the final stretch of 2025, the grain markets have settled into a familiar year-end rhythm that combines lighter volume, cautious positioning and plenty of sideways movement. The market is keeping an eye on the possibility of a Santa Claus rally, but no one is betting on it.
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If you’ve been watching the grain markets this past week, you might describe them as steady but a little restless. Corn has been the standout, ticking higher overall and shrugging off some sideways trade to finish the week a touch stronger.
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It’s been a quietly steady week for the grain markets, the kind where nothing dramatic happens but the tone still feels just firm enough to keep you paying attention. Across corn, soybeans and their byproducts, and Kansas City wheat, the market seemed content to inch higher without overcommitting in either direction.
Woolgathering With Mike
By the time I finished my final year at school, I didn’t really know what I wanted to be when I grew up.
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We have reached the final stretch of 2025, and I have no doubt that the next few weeks will bring at least something interesting to the marketplace. The tone in corn was cautious but modestly positive over the last week.
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We’re heading into the holiday season, which is often a volatile time of year. Combine that with the aftermath of a record-long government shutdown and export data we still don’t have.
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It’s been one of those weeks in the grain markets where nothing was wildly dramatic, but there was still plenty to chew on. The deadline for this writing is just shy of the first USDA numbers we’ve seen in over a month, so I fear this will be quite outdated by the time it reaches your eyes, but we’ll get on with it anyway.